A Look Back to Looking Forward
By Rod Garland
100 years ago in October and November of 1917, four divisions of the Canadian Corps took
turns assaulting Passchendaele ridge in Belgium during WW1. After separate
attacks, they succeeded in
capturing it and the ruins of Passchendaele village from exhausted German
defenders.
The battle that
had dragged on for months was one of the deadliest in terms of losses on both
sides, but showed the rest of the world how Canadian resolve, spirit and
resourcefulness could get the job done.
This week the World Energy Outlook 2017 (WEO-2017) was
released by the International Energy Agency (IEA). It is the annual update of
energy demand and supply projections to the year 2040, with reports under
different scenarios, and their consequences for energy security, economic
prosperity, efficiency, investment, air quality and climate change.
The highlights are that the global energy landscape is
changing and the rate of change will likely vary over the coming decades.
On the World’s current path, by 2040, global energy demand
is expected to grow by 30% with increasing electrification expected to meet
this demand and as the cost of renewables decline, clean energy technologies are
expected to meet 40% of the growth.
Solar power is expected to be the cheapest form of new
electricity in many countries, with third world developing regions leading the growth.
A third of energy demand growth is expected from India with China adopting a
new economic strategy on a cleaner growth path to reduce pollution.
China is projected to become a world leader in wind, solar,
nuclear and electric vehicles and the source of more than a quarter of
projected growth in natural gas consumption.
The USA is expected to be the largest exporter of LNG by the
mid 2020’s and a net oil exporter by 2030 and the shale oil and gas revolution
in the United States continues thanks to the remarkable ability of producers to
unlock new resources in cost-effective ways.
Globally, cars are expected to double to 2 billion, but oil
for those cars is expected to peak as efficiencies are realized with fuels and with
sales of more electric cars, especially in Asian markets.
Oil demand is expected to rise to 105million barrels per day
due to commercial transportation, aviation, shipping and petrochemicals and global
energy related CO2 emissions are expected to rise slightly.
Severe climate impacts are expected, and commitments to
reach limits established by the Paris accord are encouraged.
Definitely not the end of the Oil era
With the United States accounting for 80% of the increase in
global oil supply to 2025 and maintaining near-term downward pressure on
prices, it is definitely not the end of the Oil era.
Once US tight oil production flattens in the late 2020s and
non-OPEC production as a whole falls back, the market becomes increasingly
reliant on the Middle East to balance the market.
There is a continued large-scale need for investment to
develop a total of 670 billion barrels of new resources to 2040, mostly to make
up for declines in existing fields.
As the world’s fifth-largest oil producer and a significant
gas producer, Canada is well positioned to meet the demand from other countries.
Including from oil sands expansion, oil output is expected to grow from 4.5
million barrels per day to 6.2 million.
Will Canada miss the
boat?
Canada’s competitiveness with the USA and other producing
countries will be based on its ability to build new oil and gas infrastructure and
construct pipelines in all directions. Recent failures in getting large
projects beyond the planning stages is a disincentive to investors and
producers alike, that has seen investment dollars go elsewhere and some
producers scale down operations or leave.
Providing the certainty of a regulatory process that works
for industry and that is acceptable to all stakeholders is desperately required.
This will need strong, committed political leadership of the energy sector
before investment will return.
The rest of the world is watching, we need to re-kindle the
will and spirit of our brave men who played such a big part in Passchendaele and get the job done.
Key World Energy statistics can be downloaded at http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2017.pdf
The IEA has released outlooks yearly and these projections
and predictions are published and available on the IEA website for review. Many
of the outlooks, in particular the longer term predictions have not always, if
ever, met published expectations, mostly for geopolitical reasons, and more
recently with rapid advances in new technologies such as deployed with the
development of shale gas & oil.
Rod Garland
Rod has recently joined the CAGC in a member services role.
He has been involved in the seismic industry since 1975, notably in the survey
and line clearing sectors. He has served as a Board member for both Enform (now
Energy Safety Canada) and the CAGC and has also represented industry on
numerous environmental & safety committees for both the CAGC and the CSEG.
He conceived the concept for Seismic-In-Motion which showcases seismic field
technologies and is an editor and contributor of “the Source” magazine. He
would be happy to meet with any companies or individuals who support the
seismic industry and who would benefit from membership with the CAGC.
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