Supply vs Demand for Energy - what is the real problem?
Blame it on Alberta
By: Richard Bronstein
March 2016 – Business In Calgary
After the Paris conference in December 2015 tolled the bells
for climate change, pilgrims from around the world have begun the march. And
nobody wants to reach the New Jerusalem of saving the planet more than me.
But we have to produce more than idle chatter and
sentimental thinking.
We need a raft of serious policies, plans and actions. B.C.,
Ontario, Quebec, and finally Alberta, are making a start. But the federal
government has been missing in action for over two decades. Primes Minister
Chretien did nothing, Prime Minister Harper did nothing and now it is left to
Prime Minister Trudeau to stick his finger in the dike.
On good days I think Trudeau is a consensus builder and
that’s probably the right way to go about it. On bad days I worry that our new
prime minister is a ditherer. We’ll just have to wait and see.
But of all the things we have to get right in order to move
forward, the most important is to separate reality form daydreams.
This is wishful thinking at its worst.
The fact is that in 2015 manufacturers sold 1,898,485 new
cars, trucks and utility vehicles in Canada. This is an all-time record. The
previous sales record was set in 2014, and the record before that was in 2013.
How can Canadians say they don’t want oil production and
they don’t want pipelines, but they buy a record number of new automobiles? I
guess we need federal ads to explain to people that cars run on gasoline, which
comes from refined crude oil.
Even more contradictory evidence comes from Canada’s
National Energy Board (NEB) which calculated in a recent forecast what we will
consume more total energy in the year 2040, including carbon fuels, than we do
today. That means essentially that all the windmills and solar panels we
install will be used to produce extra energy and not significantly replace
carbon fuels. The NEB also says that even if we don’t build any new pipelines
in Canada, oil will be used in the future even more than it is today.
The most dangerous thing we can do is believe in the Prohibition
Fallacy. It states that if you stop the supply of booze, society will be sober
and more righteous. Well, we know that never happened. We also know the War on
Drugs doesn’t work. Neither does the War on Terror.
There will be a steady supply of reasonably-priced oil for
many years and it will be used for a long time to come.
Blaming Canadian GHG’s on oil production and pipelines reeks
of anti-Albertanism; it is not a solution. The real solution is to figure out
ways to reduce consumption, and production will surely fall.
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