YOU CAN'T GET THERE FROM HERE
YOU CAN’T GET THERE FROM HERE
By Robert Lyman | Energy Economist- Addressing Climate Change Targets |
November 1, 2015
Most young Canadians today believe
that we can reduce global warming by doing
things that would not greatly affect
our lifestyle or cost of living. Mesmerized by the
environmentalist chant that we are
“saving
the planet”, young people
simply refuse to believe that the changes entailed
in
meeting greenhouse gas emissions
(GHG) reduction target
are difficult.
To illustrate the size of the challenge we face in reducing emissions, let us examine
one
sector of the economy – transportation.
The following table shows Canadian GHG emissions by economic sector in selected
years. The numbers show millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide
equivalent (MtCO2e).
Table 1
Canadian GHG Emissions by Economic Sector (MtCO2e)
|
|
2005
|
2010
|
2013
|
2020 (projected)
|
|
Transportation
|
168
|
169
|
170
|
167
|
|
Oil and Gas
|
162
|
160
|
179
|
204
|
|
Electricity
|
121
|
99
|
85
|
71
|
|
Buildings
|
84
|
82
|
86
|
98
|
|
Emissions Intensive
Industries
|
87
|
75
|
76
|
90
|
|
Agriculture
|
68
|
70
|
75
|
70
|
|
Waste and Others
|
49
|
53
|
54
|
46
|
|
Totals
|
737
|
707
|
726
|
746
|
Source: Environment Canada
The current federal government goal is to reduce GHG emissions from 2005 levels by 17% by 2020. The Conservatives made a general (non-binding) commitment to
reduce emissions by 65% below 2010 levels by 2050. At the recent G7 leaders' meeting, the now former Prime Minister Harper signed a statement committing in
principle to reduce
emissions by somewhere between 40 and 70 per cent below
2010 levels by 2050, conditional on getting an acceptable multilateral emissions
reduction agreement. At the forthcoming COP 21 Conference in Paris in December
2015, countries like Canada will be asked to commit to reduce
emissions by up
to
80 per cent below 2010 levels by 2050 and
to
eliminate them completely before the
end of the century.
As one can see from the previous table, transportation now represents about 23
percent of Canadian emissions. Transportation emissions are roughly divided among passenger
cars and light trucks/SUVs (47%), trucks (26%), aircraft (10%),
rail (4%) and
others.
Transportation = 23% of Cdn Emissions
Cars and light trucks/SUVs (47%)
Trucks (26%)
Rail (4%)
PAGE 3
The first question to consider is whether Canada is likely to meet the
2020 target with respect to transportation, and
what would be entailed in doing so. There
are three main approaches usually
considered: reducing emissions intensity (i.e.
improving fuel efficiency); shifting from one transportation mode to others; and taxing users to get them to travel or transport less.
Environment Canada’s
most recent projections of
GHG
emissions from 2012 to
2020 show transportation emissions rising very slightly to 167 Mt. Emissions from cars, trucks and motorcycles are projected to decline
from 85 Mt in 2012 to 78 Mt in 2020, while bus, rail and
domestic aviation emissions are projected to rise from
8 Mt to 9
Mt.
Emissions from heavy-duty freight trucks and rail are projected to increase from 54 Mt to 59 Mt, while those from recreational and commercial freight transportation are projected to rise from 11 Mt to 12 Mt. Environment Canada’s projections can be found
online here:
Just won’t
do it.
The reductions in emissions from passenger vehicles to 2020 are almost entirely
due to the effects of regulation. In October 2010, Environment Canada
released the Passenger Automobile and Light Truck Greenhouse Gas Emission
Regulations,
which prescribe progressively more
stringent annual emission standards for new
vehicles in model years
2011 to 2016. In 2014, Environment Canada introduced even more stringent standards for the 2017 to 2025 model years.
Under both phases of light-duty regulation, spanning years 2011 to 2025, the fuel efficiency of new cars will increase by 41% compared to model year 2010 and the fuel efficiency of new passenger light trucks will increase by 37%.
The vehicle fuel efficiency standards are expected to reduce vehicle emissions by
11.9 Mt by 2020. In addition, new emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicles
(buses and
trucks) are expected to reduce Canada’s emissions by
about
2 Mt by
2020.
Environment Canada’s projections
take into account the
department’s estimate of
the
effect on new cars
sales of hybrid
electric (HEV) and
all-electric (BEV) vehicles,
although they do not publish precisely what this is.
There have been many
glowing estimates published concerning future electric
vehicles sales, mostly by
the
companies that make them. A 2010 report by
J.D.
Power and Associates, the foremost source of analysis on motor industry vehicle trends, provided a far more pessimistic estimate of likely future global sales of
hybrid and all-electric vehicles than those typically published by
the vehicle manufacturers and environmental groups. The J.D. Power and
Associates study concluded that the combined global
sales of HEVs and
BEVs might total 5.2
million units in 2020, just 7.3% of the 70.9 million passenger vehicles to be sold
worldwide in that year. While this is
up from 2010 sales of 954,000 vehicles, or
2.2 % of the 44.7 million vehicles sold through the end
of 2010, it is far below the
extremely optimistic numbers the Obama Administration in the United States often quotes. Further, of the 5.2 million vehicles J.D. Power projects will be sold in
2020, 3.9 million units are
expected to be hybrids powered both by
gasoline and electrical energy and only 1.3 million are
expected to be
all-electric vehicles.
The J.D. Power and
Associates report can be found online here:
Where does
electricity come
from for an electric car?
John Lawson, one of Canada’s foremost transportation economists, has studied
the potential for reducing GHG emissions from transportation, and
specifically the
possibility of
reducing emissions through modal shift (i.e. encouraging passengers
or freight movers to switch from high-emission modes of travel
to lower emission
modes). The results may be surprising.
· Doubling of intercity train passenger travel (1.43 billion passenger-
kilometres) would actually increase emissions slightly, because of the low
occupancy rates of trains
· Doubling of intercity bus passenger travel (10.43
billion passenger- kilometres) would reduce emissions, but only by
half a megatonne, because
traffic is so limited.
· Doubling of urban
passenger travel by transit (a very ambitious goal) would
divert 16.25 billion passenger-kilometres, but that would only save 2.53
megatonnes.
There are
even more limited prospects for massive reductions in freight transportation through inter-modal shifts. Shifting 10% of freight from truck to rail is considered
a significant goal, as businesses prefer
trucks because of their flexibility; unlike rail, trucks can pick up and
deliver freight to many destinations.
If a 10% shift could
be achieved from large trucks (23.36 billion tonne-kilometres)
to rail, this would reduce
emissions by 0.42 megatonnes.
John Lawson’s analysis
can be found here:
The National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy in 2012 published a report on how Canada could
achieve the 2050 goal. It estimated that imposing a carbon tax of $300 per tonne on all fossil fuel combustion could do
this. With respect to transportation, a $300 per tonne tax
translates into a 69
cent per litre tax on gasoline.
Here's the problem with that. The NTREE used, as the basis of its estimate, a fairly
high calculation for how much
gasoline consumption would decline in response to higher pump prices. Their "elasticity of demand"
was about .06. In fact,
more recent studies show that demand
elasticity is only about one third of that, or .02.
That means even a 69 cent carbon tax will not come close to getting people out of
their cars and
SUVs. To greatly reduce
gasoline and
diesel fuel consumption,
governments would have to place severe restrictions on who could
own and operate a vehicle or when vehicles could
be used. How popular would that be?
More realistically, perhaps, governments might impose carbon taxes of $100 per tonne, equal to about
24 cents per litre. Using traditional estimates of elasticity of demand, the result would be
a reduction in emissions of 12 Mt by
2020; using the lower estimates
based on recent research, the reductions would be
about 6 Mt.
In summary, the ambitious and costly measures already
taken plus those now
contemplated to reduce transportation emissions through modal shifts, increased fuel
efficiency and
taxation would, in total and at best, reduce
emissions by
less
than 30 Mt by 2020. Half of that is already
reflected in Environment Canada’s projection of 2020 emissions. The net 15 Mt reduction from the projected
transportations emissions total of 167 Mt in 2020 would represent a 9% reduction
from 2005, far below the 2020 target of a 17% reduction for the whole economy.
Looking further into the future, reducing emissions by
70%
by 2050 would mean cutting 495 Mt. That is
more than the current emissions from transportation, oil and gas, electricity generation, and emissions intensive industry combined. Eliminating cars and trucks altogether seems almost unthinkable given the
importance of mobility for commuting, freedom of movement and trade in goods. Yet that extraordinary action would only reduce Canadian emissions from 2010 levels by about
77 Mt.
Remarkably, we are being told by
global warming activists
that we must
attain this target within 35 years.
The answer
to
that demand should
be clear from the numbers.
You can’t get
there
from here.
Robert Lyman is an Ottawa consultant and energy
economist of
37 years’
experience who contributed this report to Friends of Science Society.
Text @ Robert Lyman 2015
Color Photos: Images under
license of Shutterstock.
Silhouettes: rights free clip art.
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